Race One - 3-1A-5-6 | 6f | Maiden 100k (2YO)
3 Claire’s Charm (Philip Bauer/Luis Saez) makes her debut by Violence (18% FTW) and is a half to the G1 Arkansas Derby winner Muth, who’s clearly talented if not for some difficulty getting himself on the track. Bauer has this one working very well ahead of this spot and he generally fires with his 2YOs. 1A Vanilla Sundae (Todd Pletcher/Irad Ortiz Jr.) comes to the races by Gun Runner (15% FTW) and I always feel as though I can trust a Gun Runner in the off going, as the track is expected to be muddy today. 5 Briland (Chad Brown/Tyler Gaffalione) comes in off a strong succession of works ahead of her first race for Brown and has a strong foundation on the bottom side to win on first asking carrying on the influence of damsire Speightstown (15% FTW). I’ve generally felt these McKinzie progeny want to go a bit longer lending to his early returns as a 9% FTW sire, but Brown certainly has the ability to train her up for this. 6 Rational Theory (Steve Asmussen/Jose Ortiz) makes her first start by Practical Joke (15% FTW) and like Claire’s Charm she comes from a (different) Uncle Mo (14% FTW) mare.
Race Two - 8-2-9-10 | 1 1/4M (OFF-TURF) | Maiden 100k (3YO+)
Interesting that 8 Miss Hebrides (Ken McPeek/Julien Leparoux) sticks this one out shifting over to the dirt. Perhaps it’s just McPeek craving a stretch out for this filly and feeling the meet is getting late, but this one gets a good stroke of mud pedigree from sire Mendelssohn and damsire Curlin, and she’s spun out of her turf debut firing three very strong works over the dirt. I’d like to see her try going to the front, as I don’t see a ton of pace in this race and feel the two best when it comes to dirt form, 2 Jitterbug (Christophe Clement/Joel Rosario) and 9 Past Tense (Anthony Dutrow/Flavien Prat), may just leave themselves with too much to do as more sustained pressers. These two have done battle on both dirt and turf, with Past Tense finishing ahead of Jitterbug in two of three including their one meeting in the same 10f off-turf configuration downstate. Though it would be nice to see Tony Dutrow re-claim his victory that was rightly, but unjustly taken down on Friday, I preferred Jitterbug of the two as I think she wasn’t really put in a position to do her best running when these two met last on dirt after a troubled start. 10 The Taco Lady (Linda Rice/Jose Ortiz) likely takes strong support as the lone MTO and a Linda Rice MTO making her second start off a claim. She certainly has a chance to play out as the controlling speed in a race light on pace, but she’s completely folded up shop in two tries on a sealed track including last out at Saratoga, so she’ll have to win without my money.
Race Three - 6-5-3-4 | 1M | Evan Shipman Handicap 125k (3YO+)
You know I typically shy away from horses giving away significant weight in handicaps, but I think this race could set up too well for 6 Whittington Park (Jeremiah Englehart/Kendrick Carmouche). I anticipate the pace will be rather prolific in here, with five of the six likely looking to assert themselves in the fold in a forward position. This could allow Kendrick and Whittington Park to tuck in on the rail and wait to put forth that strong turn of foot. Prior to the layoff he had been taking on some serious company in the G2 Carter and G3 Westchester, catching a wide trip in each of his past three, so saving ground will probably be imperative today. 5 Donegal Surges (Todd Pletcher/Irad Ortiz Jr.) wasn’t able to put forward a menacing threat against Drake’s Passage last out in the Commentator, but he has shown a liking for this track finishing in the exacta in three of three including a win in his maiden voyage. 3 Bank Frenzy (Rudy Rodriguez/Flavien Prat) was bet near odds-on last time out and ran like it, drawing away from a field of optional claimers. He’s since moved over to Rudy Rodriguez who certainly has the goods to keep this one on an upwards trajectory, but this will be a class test having only faced listed stakes company once in the NYSS. 4 Maker’s Candy (Mike Maker/Luis Saez) found himself tussling with the red-hot versatile Spirit of St. Louis last out and has been given a layoff out of that try in the Kingston. Most of his best runs have come downstate, but he’s 4 for 8 at the distance and should be sharp off the freshening.
Race Four - 7-8-16-1 | 5.5f (OFF-TURF) | Claiming 40k [n2L] (3YO+)
7 Forward Move (Linda Rice/Dylan Davis) broke his maiden in an off-turf race going a mile for George Weaver and was claimed out of that race by Rice, who immediately cut him back to this 5.5f configuration and got half a race as he set the pace and then faded. He didn’t really put much forward in a turf route in his last time out way back in October of 2023 and now comes in off a long layoff as a first time gelding. Assuming the relative value of his 12-1 ML holds up, I have no issues taking a chance off the long layoff hoping that Rice has figured something out here. 8 Raging (Joe Sharp/Tyler Gaffalione) makes his first start for the Sharp barn off a private switch from Brad Cox, and while it’s hard to improve a horse coming from those connections, Sharp won't break what isn’t in need of fixing. Like Forward Move (and several others here) he’s a first time gelding and could absolutely improve with that strong early run he’s shown in each start. 16 Tommy Two Socks (Rice/Irad Ortiz Jr.) will probably end up the preferred of the two Rice entries being the lone MTO first off a claim from Jena Antonucci. Rice is always deadly in these spots, but I’d rather take the price of her two runners here. 1 Solo’s Fury (Jeremiah Englehart/Manny Franco) is another first time gelding coming off a more intermediate layoff for an Englehart barn that’s cooled, but not considerably, there was simply only one way to go off his roughly 40% to start the meet. You and I both, sir. Manny should put this one in very usable stalking position and he’s showing good stuff on the training track.
Race Five - 3-4-5-7 | 7f | Claiming 50k
The favorite 4 I Got No Munny (Mike Maker/Irad Ortiz Jr.) figures to be formidable in here making his second start for the Maker barn off a strong effort here he pressed the pace from a wide position and made the eventual winner work for every single step in the stretch. He’s been given just over a month to recover from that effort, and he’d run similar races in the past, so I don’t expect him to back up significantly, but I thought there could be a bit of value in 3 Floki’s Flight (Dale Romans/Junior Alvarado). 7f can be a bit of a specialist’s distance, and this 5YO gelding is a career 2 for 4 going 7/8ths with all four runs being strong enough to hit the exacta. He cuts back after showing some speed at a mile last out shipping in from Churchill Downs. 5 Squire Creek (Joe Sharp/Tyler Gaffalione) is a speedy colt who should get out and affect the pace at the very least third off a claim for Sharp. He won last out against 50k conditional claimers over the track and distance. 7 Didinger (Butch Reid/Jose Lezcano) seems to be zagging into a good race for a trainer that always ships his horses with success. This 4YO Bolt d’Oro colt didn’t make much of an impact first time out after shipping in, but he’s had time to acclimate to his surroundings and fired a nice workout in preparation for this try.
Race Six - 11-7-10-4 | 1M (OFF-TURF) | Maiden Claiming 40k (3YO+)
The off-turf configuration of this race really opens up an opportunity for 11 Lucky and Gorgeous (Melanie Giddings/Jose Ortiz) who’s run several competitive dirt races including a debut against open company down at Tampa Bay where she finished second at a huge number. Her last two efforts have been on turf, and she is showing surface versatility, but her chances against MC horses look a lot less damning in this situation. 7 Lil’ Hayadoin (Philip Serpe/Luis Saez) sticks it out on dirt after three unsuccessful tries against MSW company on the lawn. Maybe she’s just a grass horse who’s not very good, but I’d be willing to give her a shot first out for a tag at what should be a very reasonable number. 10 Lu’s Redemption (David Duggan/Joel Rosario) wasn’t very good in her first two efforts on the dit, but this marks her first try for a tag on the dirt and Duggan adds blinkers to an already pretty tractable filly. 4 Hayes Bay (Mike Maker/Tyler Gaffalione) adds lasix for the first time having known nothing but dirt in two career starts. He jumped up with a better effort last time out for a tag and could certainly move forward first time on meds.
Race Seven - 4-9-11-8 | 5.5f (OFF-TURF) | Bolton Landing Stakes 150k (2YO)
4 Viggiedal (Steve Asmussen/Jose Ortiz) blew away the competition breaking her maiden like many of the first-season Vekoma offspring and then got a bit too bold for herself competing in a very competitive pace in the Schuylerville. She certainly hasn’t been disgraced by The Queens MG going on to win out of that race. It’s possible Asmussen really does want to get this filly on to turf after he saw her go 48.4 on the lawn in the morning, but she’s been competitive on dirt and should bounce back towards her better effort today. 9 Kimchi Cat (Tom Amoss/Tyler Gaffalione) broke her maiden over the track last time out and has maintained excellent form in the morning running back to back sub-48 4f works. She figures to get herself engaged in the pace, but drawing in outside she’ll have to be fast to clear or else give up ground to at least one talented filly. 11 Obliging (Jorge Delgado/Irad Ortiz Jr.) adds even more pace to the mix from even further outside, and we know the public won’t have any reservations betting Irad on an MTO. Bittersweet for me to see Delgado get his first official G1 win in the Alabama yesterday, and not specifically because my stubbornness caused me to overlook Power Squeeze at 6-1, a topic I’d like to unpack on a day where my internet isn’t giving me hell and I’m not up against the gun. As my longest time readers know, New York Thunder was a very special horse to me, and while I’ll always have my reservations about what happened with him, I’m big on not speculating about situations I’m uniformed about. I do take him at his word that he cared about that horse, and Power Squeeze holding up to a rigorous campaign with class shows that mistakes do happen and second chances can be warranted. 8 Abientot (Mark Casse/Dylan Davis) certainly looks like she could stand to be the beneficiary of a feisty pace set up if she’s able to take to the surface switch. Her pedigree suggests more turf to me, but Casse’s willing to take the shot.
Alright a Word About the Alabama…
Seeing as I don’t have the time to put the finishing touches on four races, and I’m limited in the amount of time I can rant about this, I’ll squeeze this in as a bonus, as much for me as anybody else.
Sometimes you just make the wrong call, a bad fucking call and yeah, I guess that’s where I fall yesterday. This month has been pretty frosty for me outside of Arthur’s Ride, and it’s possible that I’m reaching in these big races. Power Squeeze was the fastest horse from a TG perspective in the race, followed by Candied. I was right that Candied didn’t move forward, at least I’d bet she didn’t, but I was greedy in thinking that anybody had to move forward. Power Squeeze had Javier, the king of going 10f at Saratoga, and I overlooked her figures simply because she didn’t visually “wow,” me or scream forward move.
Sometimes, most of the time, you have to handicap to the proven ability of the horses in question. Personally, I feel like that’s a race I blew, and my stance backs that up. Watching Iscreamuscream nail the 9f in the Del Mar Oaks while Whiskey Decision ran away with herself just made me laugh. Sometimes you just suck and yesterday I certainly did when it counted. Next week I will not. And there are many more big spots next week.
Race Eight - 8-6-7-10 | 1M | Maiden Claiming 30k (3YO+)
8 Rough Guy (Gabriel Goodwin/Heman Harkie) hasn’t been seen on the track since October of 2022, and he’s always had a bit of a chore getting himself on the course, but I have to admit he intrigues me in this field and should go fairly overlooked. It’s hard to know who he is at this point, and I realize his back form didn’t come against the strongest level of open maidens, but this is his first start for a tag and his first against statebred company. This is very much a “why not?” pick, but this is the type of race where you make that kind of play. 6 Berning Beauty (Christophe Clement/Tyler Gaffalione) made a decent move over a sealed track on debut, but hasn’t done much since prompting a gelding during the layoff. Clement is very representative of his overall 21% win rate when it comes to dropping to MC and this is the most likely logical to find her friends today. 7 Tiz the Prince (David Duggan/Jose Ortiz) makes his first start on dirt for a trainer who excels at this turf to dirt move (26%/19 starts/+1.16 ROI). He got into some trouble early in his first start for a tag on turf and could do better with the surface switch. 10 Kilkerran (Barclay Tagg/Katie Davis) was virtually eliminated at the start last time out back in October and Tagg has certainly been patient with him consistently working him for much of this year. I always tell you Katie’s mounts out-run their odds, and this one comes in at a lofty 20-1 on the ML.
Race Nine - 8-4-3-2 | 7f | Claiming 14k (3YO+)
8 Super Chief (Mike Maker/Ramon Vazquez) has had a habit of catching wide trips recently, and on the surface catching the nine post won’t help him tuck in here and save ground. What I do like is this being his second start out for Maker making a multi-level class drop with at least some tracking speed. Today would be a really good day to re-engage that feature as it’s been a minute since he’s actually gone out and shown that speed. 4 Magia Nera (Brad Cox/Manny Franco) goes first off a claim for Cox who excels with drops off a claim winning at 53% and even maintaining a positive ROI despite his status. This one is training well over the course and drops to a more suitable level today, but I do think he needs to engage in this race earlier than usual. 3 Montebello (Rudy Rodriguez/Luis Saez) should be fresh coming in off a four month layoff where he was kind of running “good race, bad race,” with the best of his speed in the rearview mirror. He flashed a good work going 5f over the track and I’d never bet against Rudy figuring something out, especially when the price is right. 2 Blue Plate Special (Joe Sharp/Tyler Gaffalione) was claimed at this level from Randi Persaud last out and he didn’t really show his best self that day, not really breaking well and basically just galloping around the track. His best efforts aren’t too far in the rearview mirror, but his form downstate was much stronger earlier in the year.
Race 10 - 4-6-9-1 | 6f | Allowance 95k [n1x] (3YO+)
Tough race here where you can’t really knock any of these choices. 4 Better Humor Me (Charlton Baker/Kendrick Carmouche) entered into similar company last time out and looked like a horse who needed a race first off a long layoff, and she should be expected to rebound today possessing tactical speed and the chance to improve second time out at 4. There’s a lot of speed in this race, so I like that she should be most willing to sit off that early pressure with a rider who puts the tact in tactical. 6 A Maize Zing Dotie (Chris Englehart/Irad Ortiz Jr.) is a winner of three straight up at Finger Lakes and I feel like we’ve been seeing a lot of these hot horses stay hot up at Saratoga. She hasn’t been facing anything stellar, but you know she’ll get a strong ride and Englehart is excellent with his shippers and last out winners. 9 Easy Play (Ralph D’Alessandro/Ramon Vazquez) acted up a bit in the gate last out and showed her characteristic speed at long odds. Despite expending some of her energy before the race, she didn’t fold up that badly and her recent form is very solid. 1 Newsdley (Dimitrios Synnefias/Jose Gomez) is the innermost speed in a very pacey race which should help her chances on principle; she was hung out a bit wide last time out after racing competitively against this class level downstate.
Race 11 - 16-15-7-13 | 1 1/8M (OFF-TURF) | Claiming 32k
16 Colloquy (Amira Chichakly/Junior Alvarado) is a claim back for the Chichakly barn having gotten a one-and-done win out of him back in April off a claim from Tom Amoss. Now he comes over from Rob Atras, and while these are all tricky trainers to claim from, this guy seems to carry his form wherever he goes so long as he’s running in this mid-low-level claim rank. It will be a slight task for Junior to save ground rating from the outside, but he’s one of the best at giving his horse the trip they need. 15 Rocco Strong (Rudy Rodriguez/Flavien Prat) was eased up in his first start for Rudy after looking as though he was rounding back into form for Michelle Giangiulio. His race two-back over the track suggests he isn’t quite finished up at his best, and he’s plenty rateable with enough speed to keep himself in contention. 7 Landbiscuit (Mike Maker/Irad Ortiz Jr.) stays in, which keeps Irad off the 16 whom he was drawn on as an MTO. This gelding’s most recent dirt effort wasn’t very good, but he does have some buried dirt form including a win over an off surface and he’s not a hopeless turf horse. 13 Skylander (Joe Sharp/Tyler Gaffalione) was a savvy claim by the Orlando Noda barn three-back when he ran his first solid race of 2024 and immediately followed that up with a win and a second place finish. Sharp takes control with things going well and adds blinkers today.