2024 Haskell - Monmouth Park
Picks for the Grade 1 Haskell Stakes and Grade 2 United Nations Stakes
Race 11 - 7-10-2-12 | 1 3/8M (TURF) | Grade 2 United Nations Stakes 600k (3YO+)
This year’s United Nations came up as a deep, daunting field that honestly looks a lot more like a G1 than a G2. Like last week’s Diana at Saratoga, there's not much separating the top contenders in this race. I’m not guaranteeing our success to be quite as exceptional as that, but I think we could find a way through by using the same principle of looking for the “now,” horse. The more I think about it, the more I can’t get away from 7 Dataman (Graham Motion/Jorge Ruiz). I talk a lot about how I like to key on turf horses to develop from 3 to 4, and Dataman has come out at four and paired his best effort at three in back to back races, most recently overcoming a bad break and a slow pace to win the non-graded Cliff Hanger over the track. He’s yet to show that improvement from 3 to 4 when Tapit offspring are typically expected to develop about two points from 3-4YO. I won’t ride or die with him as I do like others in here, but he feels like the prototypical “coiled spring,” that could be ready to leap forward third time out at 4 for a red-hot barn. 10 Webslinger (Mark Casse/Luis Saez) won at the distance last time out against non-graded stakes horses, but he’s proven plenty capable against graded company winning the G2 American Turf last year on Derby day and coming up painfully short in the G1 Saratoga Derby, G1 Hollywood Derby and putting in a representative effort in the Turf Classic this year. He’s one for one at the track and one for one at the distance and he looks like he could be sitting on a big race for Mark Casse having developed just one point thus far from 3 to 4 on the Thoro-Graph scale.
2 Emmanuel (Todd Pletcher/Irad Ortiz Jr.) may look to set the pace from the inside with Irad aboard, and I feel like he’s coming in with some dirtied-up form making his fourth start at 5. He debuted off a long layoff at 5 and immediately ran back to his best effort rating behind a slow pace before running into a yielding turf and Master of the Seas in the G1 Maker’s Mark Mile. He then went on to the G3 Arlington and had a terrible start, breaking poorly and getting jostled around never being allowed to establish his favored early/mid positioning. Irad should have the choice of going forward or tucking in and saving ground with a horse who could round back to his best today. 12 Far Bridge (Christophe Clement/Jose Ortiz) proved to be all class finishing a game third in a dead heat in the G1 Manhattan on Belmont day and he’s a proven G1 horse having won the Belmont Derby as a 3YO last year. He’s absolutely good enough to win in this spot if he runs back to his effort last time out, but I do worry ever-so-slightly that he ran his race last time out in a third place effort. Last time represented a 2.5 point new top off of a 0.75 point new top two-back. Like Oversubscribed in today’s Lake George at Saratoga, every successive move forward makes it more likely he’ll bounce. I’m not really projecting that, I think he’ll run well, but given the way I’ve handicapped the Haskell, I may play against him in the doubles pool hoping to attract some value.
Race 12 - 7-1-3-4 | 1 1/8M | Grade 1 Haskell Stakes $1M (3YO)
It’s commonly accepted that there are six major Grade 1 route races that go on to effectively decide the champion 3YO. Obviously, the Triple Crown races carry the most public attention, and it’s arguable that the “mid-summer Derby,” the Travers, is the cream of the crop in terms of establishing a champion, but the Haskell and September’s Pennsylvania Derby are enormous races in their own right carrying both champion and stallion-making implications.
This year’s Haskell field doesn’t feel quite as illustrious as it has in year’s past, with many top 3YOs pointing to next weekend’s G2 Jim Dandy at Saratoga, including Fierceness who essentially entered as a fail-safe in this race. The potential over-abundance of graded stakes races makes it all too easy for trainers and owners to hang tight at Saratoga, but that’s a topic for another day. Despite the lack of depth in this field, we may very well see the 3YO champion come out of this race as the top two finishers in the Belmont Stakes lock up for a rematch.
I simply couldn’t get off of 7 Mindframe (Todd Pletcher/Irad Ortiz Jr.), expected to be the heavy favorite come post time off of his coming out party in the Belmont. A wise man likes to say horses will humble you all the time, and truer words have never been spoken. Both Mindframe and 1 Dornoch (Danny Gargan/Luis Saez) humbled the crap out of me in the Belmont. I simply thought Mindframe was a terrible bet at a short price trying two-turns for the first time in the 10f Belmont Stakes against experienced routers, and while his huge race proved me completely wrong, his stretch run actually proved me right. Watching in real time, and watching numerous times on replay, there’s absolutely no question that Mindframe would have rolled by Dornoch had he not jumped off course like a drunk sailor when Irad hit him with a left crop. Thoro-Graph backs that up, giving Mindframe the fastest figure from the race despite finishing second. Today he gets to cut back one furlong and has that extra layer of seasoning underneath him. It’s no knock on Dornoch, I simply ate my humble pie and accepted that Mindframe is possibly the most talented 3YO colt in America. I think he makes a very convincing argument today.
To my credit, I acknowledged time and time again that Dornoch was a hard horse to read heading into both the Derby and Belmont. Everyone fell in love with his tenacity at 2, and then many were disappointed that he failed to show any development as an early season 3YO. We all know the story: he ran a paid workout in the Fountain of Youth, then connections tried to rate him in the Blue Grass and he pretty much rejected it. Brian Hernandez then, fairly and squarely, eliminated him from the Kentucky Derby driving Mystik Dan to Dornoch’s rail spot. I said coming out of that race, “if you liked Dornoch in the Derby, you should bet him back in the Belmont.” I didn’t, so I didn’t, but if you did you got paid when that beloved tenacity came back in spades grinding past a green Mindframe and holding off a barreling Sierra Leone to pull off a stunner in the quasi-Test of the Champion. It was absolutely a shocking upset, but it proves that his form was indeed a little dirtied up. He wouldn’t be a stunner today, but he will be forced to go and go quickly from the inside. I expect him to show that textbook fight, but I simply think Mindframe was better than him in the Belmont, and I expect he’ll be even better today.
3 Tuscan Sky (Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano) is a nice Spendthrift colt for Todd Pletcher who debuted in impressive fashion as an early season 3YO and then went on to win an effective match race with Nash, a quality and more developed colt, at Fair Grounds. He never really made much of an impact in what turned out to be a strange running of the Wood Memorial, but responded after being pulled off the Derby trail by winning in visually impressive style in the Pegasus over the Monmouth oval last month. He’s a little tough to read coming out of that race, as I liked his performance first time wearing blinkers and Domestic Product went on to flatter him winning the Dwyer wheeling out of the Pegasus. My issue with him is that Pegasus was a bit of a wacky race, with the five major contenders in a field of six all ganging up on the lead together with Tuscan Sky saving all the ground in the rail position. He won like he should have given that advantage, but it was an advantage, and I think he runs into some better horses today.
4 Timberlake (Brad Cox/Flavien Prat) is the bonafide wild card in this race making his first start since disappointing as the favorite in the G1 Arkansas Derby. Once considered to be one of the leading contenders to go off as the favorite in the Kentucky Derby, Cox quickly and somewhat surprisingly changed course immediately off that effort declining to run in the Derby with designs on a possible cut-back. Everyone was a bit surprised to see Cox accept the invitation to his race, but it’s exciting to see a name brand return as I never thought it was fair to write him off as a router off one disappointing race. He’s plenty rested coming into this race and could be ready to fire a good one, but re-watching his effort in the Arkansas Derby, I did feel as though he folded up rather quickly when confronted by a quality horse like Muth. Today he’ll find one in Mindframe, and he’ll find an absolute battler in Dornoch, and I just have a difficult time seeing him finding the win in this spot. Prat has been riding as well as anybody, so I won’t be shocked if he runs well and hits the board, but a win feels like a bit of a tough ask.
I plan on playing doubles keying on Mindframe to win the Haskell. I’ll have a pretty sound bet on my top choices cold, 7/7, as well as a win bet on Dataman. Then I’ll reasonably play to price for a nice equal return on 10/7 and 2/7.