Historical Data
PAR (4.75) / AVG Previous Top (5.25) / AVG Prev Top Before a New Top (7.5)
[25 Races] 36% TOP / 44% PAIR / 12% OFF / 8% X
Generally speaking we’re looking for a filly likely to run back to her best in here. In the two instances where a filly won the Juvenile Fillies with a bounce, one of them was Beholder who’s prior top of a 2- is almost unheard of for a filly, and nothing like that shows up here.
FIELD PREVIEW & FAIR ODDS LINE
Key [Post Position] Horse | Age/Gender | Trainer | Jockey | ML Odds
[1] Vodka With a Twist | 2F | Philip D’Amato | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 20-1
In general I like the hear this filly has shown in two starts since shipping out west to Phil D’Amato, and she made a jump in her last two that puts her on the outer fringes of contending with another forward jump. She’s shown toughness, but I’m not sure stretching out brings out the best in her.
Fair Odds: 11-1
[2] Snowyte | 2F | Danny Gargan | Luis Saez | 15-1
Snowyte has been bet like a winner in two starts, yet she’s come up a bit short to two fillies who show back up here in this spot. She’s paired 10’s in two starts, which is a nice pattern, but she needs a big jump just to contend.
Fair Odds: 20-1
[3] Immersive | 2F | Brad Cox | Manny Franco | 3-1
Initially when studying her replays, the only wow thing I could come up with about Immersive is a slight, “wow, she won again.” Though she doesn’t appear to do anything visually impressive, she’s run her race each and every time she’s shown up, now owning two G1 victories and paired TG 5 speed figures which suggest she’s faster than she looks. She may not have that visually dazzling effort quite yet, but she seems by far the most likely of the favorites to run her race in here as that Godolphin Blue always seems to show up when it counts (assuming the horse is good enough, a lot more on that Saturday).
Fair Odds: 2-1
[4] La Cara | 2F | Mark Casse | Ricardo Santana Jr. | 12-1
La Cara put forward a nice effort to break her maiden two-back, earning a TG 7 which gives her a reasonable base to improve from at a very reasonable price if you like her. I’m not particularly enthused to see she backed up two points in her last, winning to me what turned out to be a fairly lackluster running of the Pocahontas.
Fair Odds: 10-1
[5] Quickick | 2F | Tom Amoss | Dylan Davis | 10-1
Quickick is progressing nicely for Tom Amoss and looks to be one who could make some noise as a spring 3YO. She’s yet to establish a level in three starts and her most recent effort running second to Immersive earned her a 6.5 TG figure stretching out to suit her McKinzie pedigree.
Fair Odds: 5-1
[6] Otomena Shacho | 2F | Hideyuki Mori | Yuga Kawada | 20-1
I don’t have very strong information on this filly, but I do know she finished seven lengths beaten to 9 American Bikini two-back in a race where the 9 earned a TG 10.5. Now the 6 did go on to win her last start by open lengths, it’s hard for me to imagine she’s improved enough to contend here, and most Japanese racing experts seem to agree.
Fair Odds: 20-1
[7] Non Compliant | 2F | Bob Baffert | Juan Hernandez | SCR
[8] Nooni | 2F | Bob Baffert | Flavien Prat | 15-1
Nooni has always looked like a sprint horse to me, and though she impressed me slightly running a game second in the Oak Leaf, she was well beaten to her stablemate Non Complaint. She won’t have to deal with her now that Non Compliant has scratched out of the race, and she did pair her top sprint figure first going long, but the TG 9 she brings in is still too slow, and I can’t imagine she’s allowed to walk on the lead.
Fair Odds: 20-1
[9] American Bikini | 2F | Takashi Saito | Ryan Moore | 5-1
The first Japanese runner where I have enough information to say she’s moved forward in each start and the TG 7.75 she earned last time out could be a foundation where she can move forward into winning a race like this, but I generally think 5-1 is a price of perception more than what the reality actually bears out.
Fair Odds: 7-1
[10] Scottish Lassie | 2F | Jorge Abreu | Jose Lezcano | 5/2 (FAV)
On number power, Scottish Lassie comes in as the horse to beat if she can manage to run back to the 3.5 she earned in her runaway win in the G1 Frizette. She was definitely aided by the post time scratch of a faster horse that day, but the number she earned is definitely legit and warrants respect in here. The problem I have is the draw did her no favors, and she was already a major candidate to regress off her last.
Fair Odds: 3-1
My Picks: 3-5-9-10
If I engage in any multi-race sequence on Friday, I’ll be leaning on Immersive to get me through this race as a single. Her connections and her form seem to suggest she’s very likely to run her race if not run a new best, and with questions about all the other major contenders and a fairly significant scratch of Baffert’s prime contender, she feels like a clear pick to me. I can’t imagine I’ll be too enthused by her standalone win price, but I do quite like the idea of running back a Alcibiades exacta of 3/5 with Quickick running second to Immersive.